Luke's Law of Team Strength!!

11 is never equivalent to 11 in sports. Its either 12 or 10 depending on the 11th jackass you pick!!!

Crushed cans and hope!

Big sporting events are when bloggers come alive.  I must say I had plans to blog about my ‘perspective’ on Vuvuzelas, Larissa and some football this past World Cup but as I mentioned in my previous post, work took an unlikely precedent over following sports!!! And YES I plan to start my next few posts complaining  about the lack of work life balance only coz this blog is still anonymous and its highly unlikely that my boss will stumble upon this!! J  Anyway, the good part about work right now is travel. And the opportunity to experience something special if you keep you eyes and ears open.  Here I was in the middle of 100000 colorful Dutch fans in Amsterdam watching the World Cup finals. The overwhelming smell of weed. The pile of crushed beer cans. And hope.  

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Arsenal and their beautiful football!!

I reached 15 minutes before the game but it was probably 15 minutes too late.  Not just were the bar stools (my favorite vantage point) gone but every single table was occupied.  The bartender thankfully remembered me from the previous week and offered to find me a place.

“Anywhere” I said in desperation as I watched the two teams walk out.

The two gentlemen were kind enough to let me join them at their table and I tried to be as non interfering as possible by turning my back on them and squeezing myself out of their view.  Tonight was going to be about football and my eyes were glued to the screen.  The ears though were a different story.

“Inter” said the Italian behind me.

“I don’t think so” said the Englishman next to him. “Bayern are playing the more attacking football.  They are definitely going to score.  Inter just holds back and it’s not going to work”

“This Inter team does not play the classical Italian game” retorted the Italian. “They attack too. Counter attack!  They beat Barcelona 3 – 1 in the first leg. They beat Chelsea 3 – 1 in aggregate”

“Fair point Mr. Italy” I thought but I ain’t interfering. Tonight was going to be about football.

I heard faint grumbling every time there was a hard “challenge” during the course of the first half and then after watching a delightful run down the wings by Robben the Englishman could not hold himself back around the 54^th minute.

“Who is playing the better football?  Who is playing the beautiful football??”

The reply was curt. “1-0 Inter?? What are you talking about?”

I held my chuckle at the Italian’s reply but I ain’t interfering.  No I ain’t. Tonight was going to be about football.

“No but that’s not beautiful football…”. More grumbling.

At the end of the game (and two large pints) I couldn’t help but …interfere. I turned around, mumbled something about it being a good game and as soon as I drew a smile from the Englishman I innocuously asked “Are you by any chance from London and an Arsenal supporter??”

A pause and a reluctant grin later “Yes!! That is very perceptive.  How did you know??”

Oh the boys in us!!

Every self admiring, bloated ego, wannabe writer does this at some point. Write that quintessential ‘stuck in the airport’ and ‘starbucks’ post!!  Never dared to take my battered and bruised work laptop (don’t carry a personal one thanks to the weight of this monolith) amongst the cooler MacBooks that usually hang out at coffee shops but here I am with ‘genuine’ time to kill at an airport so why not? Besides making small notes about my multi-continental journey from Sao Paulo to New Delhi, I might as well catch up on Brazil. I have a word page full of ‘interesting’ topics that at some point I planned to write about and post on this blog.

We have all done this as kids. At least the boys did. Collect sports cards. As a 10 year old during the 1990 World Cup the value of a Diego Maradona card I managed to get with a 50 paisa bubble gum was nothing short of the excitement of lets say winning a million dollars as an adult. Not that I know how that feels! If I remember correctly I probably hadn’t even seen a full football game by then. Maybe some clippings of this madman making his way through five Englishmen. But the card was, in Mastercard speak, priceless.

20 years on I don’t know where that card is. Maybe Mom threw it away as rubbish. In fact I had forgotten all about the card until I saw the football card craze at work recently. Apparently it is still a big deal in Brazil. My Brazilian friend told me he has all the cards (which includes cards of players from all teams, team pics, national flags, stadiums etc etc...numbering close to 600 cards for each World Cup) from the last 8 World Cups!!!  Every afternoon (actually all day round) you’ll see 30 somethings trading cards at work.  In fact the cards are numbered and an excel spreadsheet is used to keep track of which ones individuals already have and which one they don’t. It’s almost competitive. Who’s gonna complete the official World Cup album first. Apparently some of the folks from work show up at Ibirapuera park over the weekend to trade cards with strangers from all parts of Sao Paulo. Super fricking cool, I thought. I in fact went out and bought 10 packs (0.75 reals each per pack.) of 5 cards each. Enough for me to trade and get 7 English players. I gave the rest to my friend who last I checked is short of only 25 cards to complete his album. That is before his weekend trip to the park!!

Corinthians!!!

Every Brasileiro's (yes that is what they call themselves…not Brazilians!!) first love. Futebol. Little background to the post I guess will help. Sao Paulo has three big teams who play in the highest league. Corinthians, Sao Paulo and Palmeiras.  Apparently Corinthians have the largest fan base (almost 40 to 50%) in the city and like in any other inter city rivalry these fans absolutely hate the other two teams. 

The Corinthians vs. Sao Paulo game was being really talked up at work.  The struggling Corinthians badly needed a win against the more comfortably placed Sao Paulo if they had to have any chance of qualifying for the Paulista Championship Semi final.  Paulista Championship is the intra - state championship and is different from the first division football we are used to watching in Europe.  We had told our Brazilian friend at work, pretty much on the first day of our project, that we need to / have to / absolutely must see a game here in Brazil and he suggested we wait for this one.  “I’ll take you as long as you don’t wear anything in green (Palmeiras colour)” he added being a ‘hardcore’ Corinthians fan. J Having no previous allegiances, I was leaning towards Corinthians anyway partly due to the two big names they had in their ranks. Ronaldo (the fat one! Highest goal scorer in World Cups) and Roberto Carlos (arguably one of the best left backs of our generation…arguably). I was dying to see one of Roberto Carlos’s legendary free kicks. That left leg can pack a punch even in mid 30s!!  He had scored a stunner in the previous week so was likely to take a few shots on goal at least. I kept telling my friend that Roberto Carlos is going to score. Roberto Carlos is going to score. Everyone, I guess, just found my enthusiasm amusing J

The atmosphere was fantastic even though the stadium was far from full. Once particular group of fans called ‘Gaviões da Fiel’were really boisterous. Apparently they are the largest group of ‘organized’ Corinthian fans in the city. I was told they indulge in some harmless ‘organized’ trouble every now and then but I didn’t see any myself so I am not going to hold them against that reputation!! Don’t believe what you don’t see. Especially if the allegation is against sports fans J Nope. Never.

I though I had picked up parts of the Corinthians chant as well during the game until I found out (embarrassingly a day later) that all I was saying was ‘Abacaxi’ (pronounced ba.ca.shi) which means Pineapple in Portuguese!!! Had a hard time explaining the goof up to our friend from work. Guess all the new words got mixed up and I created my own Indiano - Brasileiro - Corinthiano version of the chant!! 

The game itself turned out to be a classic. Corinthians nicked the game 4 – 3 in injury time thanks to an own goal!!  As this modest Nostradamus predicted Robert Carlos scored off the first free kick he took.  Wasn’t exactly his greatest kick ever but was forceful enough to make it through the fumbling goalkeeper. Fat Ronaldo was a pale shadow of his former self! Didn’t, at any stage of the game, look interested and barely made an effort to run. Which brings me to the age old sports question…when is a good time to hang up the boots?? Later.

Best Football League in the World?? Really??

Fight for best league in the world

1. The Argument.

Which is the best football (soccer) league in the world? The question’s been asked before on the web. Yahoo Groups, Wiki Answers, Countless Blogs, et al. The overwhelming majority of the responses say English Premier League (EPL)! I am tempted to concur considering the amount EPL I watch. It surely is the most popular. It surely (you may disagree on this ‘surely’) is the most exciting. Biggest cash cow. Most watched. Talked about. And all that. But is it really the best??

Before we go any further we need to figure out what exactly are we looking for? League with the best players? The most successful clubs? Style of play? Most competitive group of clubs? Or is a blend of all these and more?? A certain X factor as some call it!! It’s complicated and some of these factors are extremely subjective. But let’s look at all of them individually and try and see if we can ‘clear the air’ a little bit. Or at least add a new dimension to the argument because lets face it… we may just have to ‘agree to disagree’ at the end of it all!

2. The Research – Part 1

The ‘league with the best players’ argument, as subjective as it is, can be used as a justification to eliminate all leagues other than the three big ones in Europe. I know it not fair and it certainly not meant to be disrespectful but most people who follow football can’t deny that the cream of football talent ply their trade in Europe. The last time someone from a club outside of England, Spain and Italy even finished 2nd in the FIFA World Player of the Year awards was Oliver Kahn of Bayern Munich way back in 2002!!! For all of Brazil’s dominance in world football, an overwhelming majority of their current squad play in the Big 3 European Leagues. The same is true for most of the big players from Africa. Coaches of Asian national teams would do anything for their ‘boys’ to get some experience in Europe. So clearly the imaginary race to get anointed as the ‘best league in the world’ is between English Premier League (EPL), Spanish Primera Division and Italian Serie A.

But can we look at the star cast and decide which one of these leagues is the best? I would much rather not. Gerrard vs Kaka. Rooney vs Benzema. Ronaldo vs Ronalidino. Eto vs Ibrahimovic. Vidic vs Gattuso. Messi. Lampard. Iniesta. David Silva. Aguero. It’s a crazy muddle of talent and honestly it’s not going to help this discussion (ok monologue). Only prolong it.

3. The Research – Part 2

Which one do you like vanilla or chocolate? Spicy Italian or Chicken Teriyaki? :) The fast paced direct English style or the ‘technically superior’ Spanish style? Or is it the cold blooded cautious approach of the Italians that whet’s your football appetite? This again is a hard one to call. Two reason. One. Its really up to the viewer what he or she wants to watch. The purist may prefer the creative Spanish but me personally…I love the frenzy of the English game. And who is to say who is right? Two. The big clubs don’t really play one particular style anymore. The influx of foreign coaches (especially in England) has lead to teams changing their tactics to suit opponent though it may be argued that the core of their approach has still remained largely unchanged.

This line of comparison leads one straight to the Champions League. How have the different styles of football matched up to each other? Over the last three seasons the English have dominated the Champions League. 3 out of the 4 semi finalist in 08-09, 07-08 and 06-07 seasons have been English clubs. No wonder the internet is full of posts declaring EPL to be the best…and invariable in every one of those posts the success of the English teams in Champions League has been used as evidence enough of EPL’s superiority!! They have a point but let’s scratch the surface just a little bit more. How has the next tier of English team done in UEFA / Europa cup?? Last time an English team made it to the finals was in 2006 when Middelsbrough lost to Sevilla. One English, four Spanish and two Italian teams have made it to the semi finals of the UEFA Cup in the last five seasons. There obviously is a hugh drop in the standards after the big four (Manchester United, Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool…for the folks who live in America or in a cave :)). Things are changing at a rapid pace with all the investment coming into City, West Ham and other smaller teams but can we say that the big four has had an easier time winning in the English Premier League? Does Real, Barcelona or the teams from Milan deal with a tougher set of competitors’ week in week out?

4. The Research – Part 3

How do we determine the competitiveness of each league?? Subjective again but I think some number crunching might help us look at things a little more objectively. In a world where dirhams, roubles and dollars flow in and out of clubs, changing the fortunes of players and competitiveness of leagues, 3 years is a long time in football to measure change. So I aint looking beyond the 2006-07 season for my Sunday morning research. The fundamental premise of my number crunching is that the stronger the lower half of the league…stronger the league! You are as good as your weakest link as they say or links in this case. How well are the bottom 10 teams performing in comparison to the top 10?

(For the uninitiated reader, probably an American (I am not picking on you!:)) or a cricket crazy Indian :), each of the three leagues has 20 teams playing two games against each other. One at Home and one Away. That makes for a total of 38 games for each team each season. They get three points for a win, one for a draw and none for a loss. The team with highest points at the end of 38 games is the winner. Period. No Play offs. No Post season)

The first thing to look at is the end of season point differential between the top ten and the bottom ten teams. I took a three year average of point difference between top 10 and bottom 10 teams for each of the leagues and to my surprise the Spaniards came out on top.

STAT A: Three year average of point difference between top 10 and bottom 10 teams

(Lower the difference, stronger the league)

English: 27.76666667

Spanish: 21.46666667

Italian: 28.9

I looked at the numbers again. There’s got to be some kind of mistake. The English can’t be that way off the mark. I found an excuse to redo the math. In 2007 – 2008 season, Derby County was rock bottom of the EPL table collecting only 11 points over 38 games. No other team did as badly in any of the leagues over the three seasons I was looking at. I was convinced that this lead to the anomaly. So I pretty much did the first step again except I took out the top 3 and bottom 3 teams (from each league) to try and neutralize Derby's horrendous performance in 07-08. It did not make any fricking difference!! :) I need to come up with a good one now if I have to turn it around for EPL!!

STAT B: Three year average of point difference between top (4 to 10) and bottom (11 to 17) teams

(Lower the difference, stronger the league)

English: 17.0952381

Spanish: 12.71428571

Italian: 23.76190476

What is a good team?? From the 10 years (not much by most standards) of my watching football closely, I can say, that good teams score away from home and rarely concede goals at home. A ratio of goal scored away vs. goals conceded at home is a good indicator of the team’s ability to win matches. For the sake of simplicity let me call it the Weakest Link Ratio. Can this magic ratio be the saviour? Let’s see.

STAT C: Weakest Link Ratio (Three year Average) = Average Goals Scored Away by Bottom 10 teams / Average Goals Conceded at Home by Bottom 10 teams

(Higher the Ratio Stronger the Bottom 10 teams)

English: 0.644986578

Spanish: 0.749581422

Italian: 0.721181961

Again!!!

5. The Conclusion

On all three of my STATs the Spanish Primera Division came out on top…hands down. Does it bother me?? Yes it does. Never again can I be in an argument and say “EPL is the best” without a little hesitancy in my voice!! :) You decide…but only for yourself.

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If any of you had the patience to read through this post and would be interested in looking at the spreadsheet I used to crunch the points table…feel free to write a note below with your email address and I’ll send it to you.

Football's Bunch of Jokers!!!

Thierry Henry:  Cheating?

So I am watching more cricket today. Test match (5 day!) cricket that does NOT involve India. USA vs. Mexico! OK I am kidding :) It’s the Aussies vs. West Indies (a.k.a Caribbean for all my American friends). I don’t follow cricket as closely (I mean every game :)) as I used to before I started traveling. I didn’t realize that until just now. I just saw something on TV that I have always wanted to see in cricket. Actually for all sports. Decision Review System!

Here’s what happened. Windies are chasing 359 runs in the second innings. 5 wickets down. Probably down to the last two batsmen that can make a match of it. Ramdin is given leg before wicket on a ball that clearly is going down the leg side!! Back in the day he would have walked away grudgingly shaking his head and the Aussies would go on the wrap the tail within the next hour (they still might!). But wait a second! He appeals against the decision and the third umpire rightly overrules the original decision of asking the batsman to walk. Isn’t that great?? I have always thought the argument against technology in sport (holds the game up, takes out the human element, blah, blah, blah) is a truckload of bullshit! What really matters is ensuring that the best team / player wins fair and square. American football (from whatever I understand of it!) uses television replay. Among the more globally watched sports, tennis was an early adopter and I think it’s become a whole lot fairer!

The one sport that really needs to do more is football or soccer. It my favorite sport and honestly FIFA’s attitude towards technology and any form of experimentation leaves much to be desired. Why am I being nice to them?? Stepp Blatter and Co. are a bigger ‘bunch of jokers’ than the much maligned (right so, may I add) Indian cricket team selectors. Of course I am going to use the Thierry Henry incident as a case in point (very original huh?? :)). It’s as good an example as there is to show how a little bit of technology (that already was in place!) would have made sure the deserving team went through to the World Cup. There are hundreds of other instances, minor in comparison to the incident I just described but significant in the context of the game, where existing technology would have ensured fans who pay to watch the game are not going back home with a bitter taste in their mouth (I am not referring to the stale lager!). Think about it. If you follow soccer how many times have you seen a faked dive in the penalty box, a ball that crossed the goal line but was allegedly ‘cleared’, a punch in the face without provocation when the ball was not in play or a howler of an offside decision. Hundreds of thousands of time. It can be argued that the cameras don’t cover all angles and the ‘TV umpire’ may not be in a position to decide. Fair enough. Then let the original decision made by the umpire on the pitch stay. All I am trying to say is that if technology makes it fairer than what it is today I don’t mind waiting a couple of minutes extra while the game is held up. I don’t think most people do (I won’t vouch for the French:)). Here’s hoping for a fairer and cleaner World Cup winner.

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In case you needed proof:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2010/mar/06/fifa-rejects-goalline-technology